WNBA Picks — July 28, 2026

For WNBA picks July 28, 2026 you face a compact five-game slate that features four high-conviction moneyline leans and one totals angle. The model shows clear separation on the top four plays, all carrying four or five stars and confidence levels above 73 percent, while the fifth game offers a lower-percentage total lean. You should prioritize the heavy favorites where the numbers align most strongly and treat the under as a smaller allocation. Home-court and rest edges are implied in several matchups but the model percentages remain the primary driver for these WNBA picks today.

Toronto Tempo WNBA vs Minnesota Lynx — Minnesota Lynx ML

Take Minnesota Lynx ML at -1500. The model assigns this matchup a 91 percent probability, the highest on the board, reflecting a massive talent and recent-form gap. Toronto’s road performance has been poor and the price, though short, still offers value relative to the projected margin. This is a five-star lean you can size up confidently within your normal unit plan.

Portland Fire WNBA vs Las Vegas Aces — Las Vegas Aces ML

Back Las Vegas Aces ML at -700. The model gives this an 88 percent win probability, underscoring the Aces’ dominance at home against a Portland side that struggles on the road. The price is steep but the projected outcome remains heavily one-sided. Allocate accordingly as a four-star plus play.

Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm — Indiana Fever ML

Play Indiana Fever ML at -475. The model rates this 87 percent, driven by Indiana’s superior offensive efficiency and Seattle’s defensive vulnerabilities. Even at short odds the edge is substantial enough to warrant a standard five-star position for most bettors.

New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks — New York Liberty ML

Take New York Liberty ML at -180. The model sits at 73 percent here, still well above even-money value, because New York’s defensive rating and rebounding edge project a road win the majority of the time. The spread angle is not required; the moneyline provides the cleanest extraction of the model edge.

Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics — Under 157.5

Target the under 157.5. The model assigns this total a 48 percent probability, the lowest on the board, so treat it as a smaller, lower-confidence lean rather than a core position. Pace and defensive metrics both tilt slightly toward the under but the margin is thin.

Overall the board carries four high-confidence plays and one speculative total. Model edges are probabilistic only and never guarantees; size bets responsibly and keep total daily exposure within your normal bankroll limits.