Soccer Picks — August 01, 2026

You have 28 matches to work through for Soccer picks August 01, 2026. The board shows a clear split between a handful of high-conviction moneyline favorites and a broader lean toward totals, especially overs in domestic cups and MLS fixtures. Leverkusen ML at -450 carries the heaviest model weight at 79 percent, while several Under 3.5 lines sit in the mid-40s to mid-50s range. You will see five-star and four-star selections concentrated early, then a run of three-star and lower-confidence totals that still offer measurable edges. Draws remain live in several even-money or plus-money ML spots, so price shopping around the totals and both-teams-to-score angles will matter. Focus on the model percentages and the single strongest matchup factor listed under each game rather than chasing volume.

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Leverkusen — Leverkusen ML

Leverkusen ML at -450 is the pick. The 79 percent model confidence reflects Leverkusen’s superior squad depth and historical dominance in cup ties against lower-league opposition. Rot-Weiss Essen +850 offers no statistical counter. The five-star rating marks this as the day’s clearest single outcome.

FC Dallas vs Los Angeles Galaxy — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 at the available price is the selection. The 68 percent model edge points to two sides that have combined for fewer than 3.5 goals in most recent meetings. Both teams prioritize structure over open play, limiting high-scoring variance.

Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire — Chicago Fire ML

Chicago Fire ML at -220 is the pick. Model confidence sits at 66 percent, driven by Chicago’s stronger away record and Charlotte’s defensive vulnerabilities at home. The four-star rating supports a straight moneyline approach.

Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 65 percent model confidence. Atlanta’s high-possession style against Philadelphia’s aggressive press creates repeated transition chances that push games above the total.

Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 is the selection. The 63 percent model reads both teams’ attacking depth and recent high-event matches as likely to clear the line again.

Hearts vs Aberdeen — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals carries 62 percent model support. Both Scottish sides have produced open games this season, and the data favors another multi-goal outcome.

Ipswich vs Oxford — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 is the pick. Model confidence at 62 percent aligns with Ipswich’s attacking volume and Oxford’s tendency to concede in transition.

Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami — Inter Miami ML

Inter Miami ML at -155 is the bet. The 62 percent model highlights Miami’s superior attacking output and Columbus’s recent home defensive lapses.

Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals at 60 percent model confidence is the lean. Both clubs have shown vulnerability in wide areas that typically produces open exchanges.

St Mirren vs Falkirk — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 is the selection with 59 percent model backing. The matchup profile favors end-to-end play over low-event control.

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati — Over 3.5

Over 3.5 goals carries 59 percent model support. San Jose’s porous defense against Cincinnati’s counter threat points to a higher goal count.

AS Roma vs Cardiff City — AS Roma ML

AS Roma ML at -180 is the pick. The 59 percent model reflects Roma’s home control and Cardiff’s limited threat on the road.

Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals at 59 percent model confidence is the lean. Both teams have combined for multi-goal results in recent Western Conference fixtures.

Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls — Over 3.5

Over 3.5 is the selection. Model confidence of 59 percent aligns with Orlando’s high home scoring rate against New York’s aggressive but open style.

Karlsruher SC vs Hoffenheim — Hoffenheim ML

Hoffenheim ML at -180 is the pick. The 58 percent model cites Hoffenheim’s attacking quality and Karlsruher’s defensive limitations in cup play.

Inter Milan vs Man City — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 goals at 56 percent model confidence is the lean. Both sides’ organized defenses limit open play and keep totals in check.

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals carries 56 percent model support. Houston’s forward movement against Kansas City’s high line creates repeated scoring opportunities.

Hull vs Kasimpasa Istanbul — Under 2.5

Under 2.5 at 54 percent model confidence is the selection. The data points to compact defensive blocks on both sides.

Arsenal vs Girona — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals is the lean with 54 percent model backing. Arsenal’s high press against Girona’s build-out style typically produces open exchanges.

Everton vs Hamburger SV — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals at 53 percent model confidence is the pick. Both teams have shown vulnerability in central areas that leads to multi-goal results.

Udinese vs Mainz — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 is the selection. Model support at 53 percent reflects open midfield battles in recent similar fixtures.

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 goals carries 52 percent model confidence. Both Western Conference sides prioritize structure, keeping totals lower.

New England Revolution vs CF Montreal — Over 2.5

Over 2.5 goals at 51 percent model confidence is the lean. Recent form for both clubs shows elevated goal involvement.

Stuttgart vs Paris FC — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 at 48 percent model confidence is the selection. Stuttgart’s control and Paris FC’s compact shape limit high-scoring variance.

San Diego FC vs Minnesota United FC — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 goals is the pick. Model confidence of 47 percent aligns with two sides that favor cautious build-up play.

Tottenham vs Chelsea — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 carries 47 percent model support. Both London clubs have produced lower-event matches in recent head-to-heads.

Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 goals at 46 percent model confidence is the lean. Cascadia derbies have trended toward fewer total goals lately.

Fiorentina vs Real Madrid — Under 3.5

Under 3.5 is the selection. Model confidence of 46 percent reflects Real Madrid’s defensive organization limiting Fiorentina’s chances.

The 28-match board carries varying conviction levels, with the highest model percentages concentrated on the early moneyline and totals selections. Treat every edge as a probability rather than a guarantee. Manage stake size according to your bankroll and only wager amounts you can afford to lose.