NHL Picks — September 26, 2026

You're reviewing four NHL matchups for NHL picks September 26, 2026. The board mixes moneyline and total plays, with model edges ranging from strong to marginal. St. Louis stands out as the clearest conviction lean while the remaining three games offer lower-percentage opportunities. Home-ice pricing and moneyline versus puck-line tradeoffs factor into each selection, yet NHL variance means even 65% edges carry meaningful risk. Focus on the highest-confidence spots and size bets accordingly rather than chasing every listed lean.

St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks — St. Louis Blues ML

Take St. Louis Blues moneyline at -155. The four-star selection carries the day's highest model confidence at 65%, giving the clearest statistical edge on the board. Chicago's +120 price reflects road underdog status, but the model favors St. Louis enough to prefer the moneyline over a puck-line alternative. This remains an NHL game, so variance can still override the projection on any single night.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Detroit Red Wings — Over 5.5

Play the total Over 5.5 at the listed price. The three-star pick posts 64% model confidence, the second-strongest read today. Detroit's home pricing at +100 on the moneyline suggests a close contest that the model expects to clear the total. No puck-line alternative reaches comparable confidence, so the over serves as the preferred angle here.

New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders — New Jersey Devils ML

Back New Jersey Devils moneyline at -150. The three-star lean shows 62% model support behind the road favorite. New York’s +115 price offers value for Islanders backers, yet the projection sides with New Jersey. Home-ice advantage for the Islanders is acknowledged but does not overcome the model edge on the moneyline.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers — Tampa Bay Lightning ML

Take Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline at -130. This one-star selection registers the lowest model confidence at 54%. Florida’s even-money price reflects home-ice leverage, but the lean still points to Tampa Bay. At this confidence level the moneyline remains the chosen side rather than any puck-line alternative.

Overall board confidence sits in the moderate range, led by the 65% St. Louis play. Model edges represent probabilistic advantages only and never guarantee results. Manage bankroll responsibly and limit exposure on any single game regardless of star rating.