MLB Picks — September 25, 2026

Today's MLB picks September 25, 2026 board covers nine games with a clear top conviction on the Dodgers moneyline. MLB picks today show one five-star selection at 92% model confidence, followed by a pair of totals at 68% and 63%. The remaining six plays range from moderate edges near 64% down to lower-confidence totals under 50%. You should prioritize the star ratings when allocating units, as the Dodgers lean stands well above the rest of the card. The overall board mixes three moneyline bets with six totals, giving you a balanced set of angles rather than one dominant side. Focus on the highest-rated plays first while keeping position sizes modest across the lower-confidence games.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants — Los Angeles Dodgers ML

Take the Dodgers moneyline at -375. The model assigns this play 92% confidence and five stars, the highest rating on the board. San Francisco’s +300 price reflects the market acknowledging the large gap in current form and roster strength. Your single best edge here is the model’s overall projection, which dwarfs every other selection. Bet the Dodgers to win outright.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers — Over 8.5

Play the total over 8.5 at the posted number. The model gives this four stars and 68% confidence, the second-highest rating today. The lean comes from the market-implied run environment and the model’s totals projection. This is your clearest totals edge on the slate.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies ML

Back the Phillies moneyline at -159. The model rates the play three stars with 64% confidence. Philadelphia’s price reflects the home favorite role and the model’s slight lean toward the stronger club. Use this as a moderate-confidence moneyline option.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners — Over 9.5

Take the total over 9.5. The model grades this three stars at 63% confidence. The lean is driven by the market total and the model’s run-scoring projection for the matchup. This sits just below the top totals play in conviction.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins — Under 8.5

Play the total under 8.5. The model assigns two stars and 58% confidence. The edge is the model’s lower run expectation relative to the posted total. Treat this as a lower-unit totals lean.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres ML

Take the Padres moneyline at -135. The model rates the play two stars at 57% confidence. San Diego’s price aligns with the slight market favorite role. This is a moderate moneyline lean based on the model projection.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — Over 8.5

Play the total over 8.5. The model gives two stars and 55% confidence. The lean rests on the model’s totals output versus the market line. Size this bet accordingly given the modest rating.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — Under 8.5

Take the total under 8.5. The model assigns one star at 47% confidence. The lean is the model’s run-suppressing projection. Keep units small on this lower-confidence total.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals — Over 8.5

Play the total over 8.5. The model rates this one star at 46% confidence. The edge is the model’s totals output compared with the posted number. This is the lowest-rated play on the board.

The nine-game board shows one high-conviction moneyline and a spread of totals at varying confidence levels. Model edges are probabilistic, not guarantees. Manage your bankroll responsibly and size bets to the star ratings and confidence percentages provided.