MLB Picks — July 29, 2026

Thirteen games fill the MLB picks July 29, 2026 board. The strongest model edge sits with Tampa Bay at 65 percent, while most other leans cluster between 54 and 61 percent. MLB picks today favor a handful of moneyline sides backed by pitching or bullpen edges and several totals that align with run-prevention trends. You should expect modest unit sizing across the board given the mid-50s confidence levels that dominate the rest of the slate.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays — Tampa Bay Rays ML

Take the Rays at -135. The model assigns this side a 65 percent win probability, the highest on the board, and marks it with four stars. Tampa Bay’s edge stems from the clearest market and projection gap among all 13 games, making it the lone high-conviction play for MLB picks today.

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers ML

Detroit at -170 earns a three-star lean with 61 percent model confidence. The Tigers’ moneyline price reflects a measurable advantage in the underlying matchup data supplied for this contest.

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — New York Yankees ML

New York at -150 is the pick at 60 percent model confidence. The two-star rating aligns with the market lean toward the Yankees in this interleague spot.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — Cleveland Guardians ML

Cleveland at -130 carries 60 percent model support and two stars. The Guardians’ side shows the stronger projection relative to the listed price.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Under 8.5

The under 8.5 is the selection at 58 percent model confidence. Two stars reflect a modest but clear lean toward the lower total based on the available run-environment data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates ML

Pittsburgh at -135 grades out at 57 percent with two stars. The model favors the Pirates’ moneyline relative to the listed price.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Under 8.5

The under 8.5 earns two stars at 56 percent model confidence. The lean points to a lower-scoring outcome in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 9.5

The over 9.5 is the pick at 55 percent model confidence. Two stars indicate a slight edge toward the higher total on the board.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels — Under 7.5

Under 7.5 receives two stars at 55 percent model confidence. The projection favors the reduced run total in this contest.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals — Under 9.5

The under 9.5 is the lean at 54 percent model confidence. One star reflects the modest projection edge for the lower total.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — Under 9.5

Under 9.5 carries one star at 49 percent model confidence. The lean is the weakest directional signal among the 13 games.

Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics — Over 9.5

The over 9.5 is the selection at 45 percent model confidence. One star marks the slight lean toward the higher total.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres — Under 8.5

Under 8.5 earns one star at 40 percent model confidence. The projection points to a lower-scoring result in this matchup.

Overall board confidence remains moderate, with only one four-star selection and the rest of the leans in the mid-40s to low-60s range. Size bets according to your bankroll and treat model percentages as decision tools rather than guarantees of outcome.